Research
Track record
Dated forecasts, checked against what actually happened, styled the same whether they landed or missed. This page publishes real entries once there is a full quarter of dated Deposits forecasts to report on honestly.
No dated forecasts published yet
The Deposits forecasting tools (Rate Advisor, Maturity Wall) are still in development. A forecast only belongs on this page once its outcome period has closed, so an empty page here is the correct state, not a bug, until that history exists.
What this page will look like
Illustrative example, not a real forecast: Riverbend Community Bank, $1.2B (fictional)
Riverbend Community Bank's 12-month CD balances will decline by 4 to 7 percent over the next 90 days if the posted rate is not raised.
Balances declined 5.8 percent over the 90-day window, within the forecast range.
A competitor rate move in Millbrook County will pull at least $2M in money-market balances within 60 days.
Balances declined $0.6M, below the forecast range. The competitor's rate advantage narrowed sooner than modeled after a follow-up rate cut. Recorded as a miss, not revised after the fact.
Riverbend's deposit beta will rise above 35 percent if the Fed holds rates through the next two quarters.
Outcome period has not closed yet.